Microsoft - Yahoo! and the parade of illusions
Tuesday, April 8th, 2008The Microsoft bid to take Yahoo! has entered it´s third month and the plot has been slow. as a Soap Opera trying to squeeze all the time possible of a previsible storyline.
The plot strung a chord with Steve Ballmer letter proclaiming a Ultimatum to Yahoo! and Yahoo! responded shortly turning this in a “he said, i said, he said” game.
But it is truly all is there to it?.
I truly think this is not the REAL story of what is happening, i see a scheme of protocol and a play of some sorts. more because of the same findings Brian Caufield of Forbes.com found. a game of waiting because there are too many shared interests at play given the main stockholders of Yahoo are also important Microsoft stockholders making this whole deal a done deal in a unofficial form.
If Microsoft chooses to go into a proxy fight, they win and Yahoo! would lose greatly because it is very possible they would get less that the original bid Microsoft did for them.
The share interests also explain why Microsoft has been so nice and patient with this deal considering the magnitude puts it as the biggest deal ever done in the web. precisely because the main Yahoo stockholders are also Microsoft stockholders and damaging them would hurt Microsoft too.
This does stop the rest of the Soap Opera from going on and people getting nervous with it, minor stockholders in the border of a killing mood and wall street losing their temper to the slow pace of this story.
The stakes have already being played, it is only about the actions following their marked path. any other scenario would still mean the end of yahoo because of the effect on the company value if Microsoft walks away and because the stockholders would sue the board to death causing the internal auto-destruction of the company. something already implicit on the counter effect of the initial Microsoft offer. such destruction would still allow Microsoft to bid for the pieces they need as Google would not be able to touch them but such scenario would be sad and tragedy because of all the market value and hits real state that would suddenly go off into thin air. this is what Microsoft wants to avoid. as more of the package they get, the best.
Yahoo! Jerry Yang still claims he can save Yahoo!, but i also wonder if that is another play or if he is really just a pawn into this and is truly as disconnected from reality to think he can save Yahoo1 in time?
JErry Yang last hope are that Yahoo last quarter earnings come as good so his projection can hold some water. but the questions is: even if they are good, Yang projections can hold true?, and they are enough to turn around the tide?.
The problem is that the answers to those questions is already to be known as a “NO”. but miracles exist. so maybe Yahoo! got a early Christmas like Miracle that will make everything right.
At least the Finale has been announced and the most we have to wait it 3-4 weeks to watch the end of the line.








